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COVID-19 work conditions

KaptCrunch

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 23, 2008
Messages
4,288
Location
Ontario
EMF of war time rader, INFLUENZA. SIDS cell phones to name a few as technology progresses so does cancer, disease.

Question why do we have stay in side and not play in parks.

welcome to BIO WARFARE were going backwards to bondage of 1% ownership. strange that word hasn't come up in the book Eyes Of Darkness ... engineered sickness.
 

FreeKnight

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 8, 2009
Messages
2,277
Location
Edmonton, AB
Long ago I just decided not to comment on every post of the Kapt'ns that rose a red flag for me on logic or sense, there's just no way I'd convince him or feel like it was a productive use of my time. And I'd be doing it every other day ;)
 

Dwayne

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 17, 2008
Messages
1,091
Location
Courtenay, BC
Well, they are using computer models, and those seem to be off by a large portion. And much like the weatherman who predicts a 35% chance of rain, their mitigation policies will always be the right ones, because there is no way to show that they are right or if they are wrong. If it rains, the weatherman is right, and if it doesn't rain he is still right.

Canada needs to have another 17,000 people test positive to get to 1% of the population, and in most provinces, other than Quebec and Ontario, the number of cases per day are stabilizing and even falling. If you look backward from yesterday, it took 7 days, give or take 12 hours, to double the number of cases. If we take Quebec and Ontario and give them each their worst day numbers, 907 and 550 respectively, we get another 10,199 cases over the next week. The rest of Canada is pretty calm. And while I don't expect Quebec to have 1000 cases a day for 7 days in a row, I guess it is possible. I don't have a crystal ball.

All I know that in BC we have almost twice as many recovered as we have active cases. Also, the past 7 days average cases is 35 per day. We started to get serious about "flattening the curve" close to the middle of March. Well, the curve has flattened. The hospitals are not overwhelmed. In fact, they cleared out over 3000 beds to be ready for the tsunami of cases and I believe yesterday there were 136 people in the hospital. If BC starts to loosen the rules commercially will all hell break loose? I don't know, but I do know that politicians are risk averse so they will keep up penned up as long as they possibly can, I guess.

The Trudeau government model, the low end, is predicting 2.5% of the population infected. Seems out to lunch looking at the numbers today, and looking back over the past 2 weeks. Not only that, but their estimate of 4,400 deaths from those 93,750 cases is a mortality rate of 4.69%. As of today the mortality rate of known cases is 2.4%. Their estimates seem like they are designed to spook people into compliance.

I'm not an epidemiologist, I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn last night either. I am just a level headed old guy that feels that Canadians are being browbeaten and panicked into compliance based on inflated numbers and a fear of appearing uncaring because folks older than me are dying.

I was thinking of cutting an pasting this to rants, but I don't think it is a rant. I have real numbers that I have been keeping since 24 March. I do this because I have family that is very concerned about this. I am trying to provide some semblance of counter balance to all the media doom and worst case predictions. I have a daughter in Winnipeg that is concerned for her children, Manitoba has 224 cases, .016% of the population. My Mom is 80, I missed going to Winnipeg to celebrate her birthday last week. We though it prudent, given the situation. I don't want her to get sick, but I asked her if she knew anyone who has it, or had it, she didn't. I care that people are dying, but I also care that people sitting at home are getting sick with worry.
 

Valkyrie

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 3, 2012
Messages
774
Location
Chilliwack...Time Is Just A Rubber Band....
It's the pre-symptomatic and (worse) the asymptomatic that really throw a wrench in the mix. The only way to know for sure your not a carrier is to get tested.

Inlaws are in their 80's...we're not having dinner together this weekend.

Edit: And I should add, if you could get tested and proved negative there is nothing stopping you from picking it up now. Even if you are naturally immune you can still spread it for some time.
 
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Dwayne

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 17, 2008
Messages
1,091
Location
Courtenay, BC
It's the pre-symptomatic and (worse) the asymptomatic that really throw a wrench in the mix. The only way to know for sure your not a carrier is to get tested.

Inlaws are in their 80's...we're not having dinner together this weekend.
My daughter and her 4 children live in town, we have only talked at the door once or twice since the middle of March. She is concerned that if they get something, we will get it, and since we are closer to 60 than 50, she doesn't want to make us sick. I think there are 82 cases on Vancouver Island now. They don't tell any one details, but if we have more than 10 in the Comox Valley I would be surprised. Vancouver Island population is around 880,000. I think the possibility of contracting the virus is less than winning the 6/49, but hey, I'm no expert. Everyone just does what they are told, I guess, and we hope for the best.
 

JD

Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Jul 16, 2007
Messages
9,712
Location
Toronto, ON
You can play devil's advocate for either side really...

Part of me would say our numbers are actually significantly worse than what's published, it's just that people stay home and recover on their own, thinking it's maybe just the normal flu or a common cold. The confirmed cases are only based upon people who have gone to get tested or been hospitalized. This is a very small subset of the population. The number of confirmed cases would only become credible if they were testing at least 50% of the population routinely IMO. This would have to include both testing for the virus itself and testing for immunity to the virus.

Ultimately, I don't think anyone truly knows the answer. Everyone's making the best educated guess they can, but I don't think you can really "fight" a virus. It'll spread one way or another and those who are vulnerable to it will be infected. The mortality rate seems to be the only somewhat useful metric but it doesn't really help you to predict spread or duration of this outbreak.
 
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