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COVID-19 work conditions

Prickly007

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Jul 8, 2014
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Metro-Vancouver
I wouldn't relax just because the math / stat show our density is lower (remember the saying, lies, damn lies, and stats). If you read up on SARS and COVID19 spread in buildings in Hong Kong....

I was also thinking of transportation... NYU has it's subway, London has the Tube, etc. By comparison, Translink is pretty shitty; which is now a good thing. lol. Plus metro-Vancouver, I suspect, has a lot more single family homes than hard hit areas.

As for herd immunity, has that even been confirmed as a possibility yet? Influenza, the viruses responsible for the common cold, after all, are all seasonal.
 

KaptCrunch

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Joined
Feb 23, 2008
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4,403
Location
Ontario
man that's a lot of bat's eaten world wide to wave virus

we wil never know who commissioned it or killed JFK

smoke n mirrors for to shaken real truth behind greed
 

belgolas

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May 9, 2007
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4,305
Location
St. Thomas, Ontario
Could you point me to the models that you have followed that have been someone close to correct. The only ones that might be close now are the IHME models from UW, and they have been adjusted quite a number of times. The closer we get to the final tally, the better the model will get, as long as they keep adjusting it.

I am curious at what you consider the "death rate"? The Case Fatality Rate, the number of deaths / total cases is no where near your numbers. The Infection Fatality Rate is even lower because we have no idea how many people actually become/became infected. We will never know the true IFR, but there have been tests done in many countries looking at blood serology, and the number of infected people is considerably higher than the positive tests indicate. This only makes sense as most people who get only minor symptoms, or no symptoms at all, will never present to a testing station.
The death rate number I gave was of closed cases of people that have recovered or died. I also said that is not the actual rate but too many people are pulling numbers out of their ass saying that the numbers are many orders of magnitude off.

I can also provide articles that show that Swedens economy is taking a hit and is projected to continue to drop.
 

moocow

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Aug 8, 2011
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1,971
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Vancouver, BC
God damn it's not bats, get it right. It's likely pangolin that got infected by bats and then jumped to humans. The DNA sequencing traced the virus back to bats so whatever wild animals they were selling at the market probably caught it from bats and mutated a second time and jumped hosts. SARS was probably civet cat, MERS was probably camels (no one ate them, people were just riding them). The issue isn't eating animals but trading in wild life at a massive scale. Domesticated supply is supposed to be safe guarded by veterinarians. There's no such safe guards in place, especially in that particular section of the market. It was supposed to be outlawed after SARS but it was either reversed or the local government didn't care. If you hunt and eat one animal is one thing but capturing a crap load of them from the wide and then selling them in a market is another.
 

Dwayne

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Aug 17, 2008
Messages
1,371
Location
Courtenay, BC
The death rate number I gave was of closed cases of people that have recovered or died. I also said that is not the actual rate but too many people are pulling numbers out of their ass saying that the numbers are many orders of magnitude off.

I can also provide articles that show that Swedens economy is taking a hit and is projected to continue to drop.

I will stick with what they are using in most of the discussion, the CFR and the IFR. The recovery data is spotty for almost every nation. They don't really track it at all. Unless someone is hospitalized it seems that if you are not dead between 2 and 3 weeks after the onset of symptom, you're golden. In fact, I think Ontario is using that guideline to generate their recovery numbers.

As for Sweden's economy I saw a CNBC article that referenced the IMF's esitmates that Sweden will suffer roughly the same as other European nations, but as I linked, the traffic indications using the anonymous phone data from Google showed only a 13% drop in traffic to shops and restaurants in Stockholm.
 

moocow

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Aug 8, 2011
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1,971
Location
Vancouver, BC
but as I linked, the traffic indications using the anonymous phone data from Google showed only a 13% drop in traffic to shops and restaurants in Stockholm.

I think Sweden may be an outlier if check their situation against what's going on around the world. South Korea got hit with 100 new cases from night club goers but that would be classify as large gathering. China reported another 11 cases in a city bordering Russia and North Korea and 1 in Wuhan area. Germany is seeing another surge over the weekend.

So we are caught in between 2 very hard rocks. People are running of money and getting cabin fever, there's no denying that. But we are barely keeping the curve flat in BC and look at how bad Quebec and US are, how can we even open up without addressing social behaviors, domestic and inter-continental trade and travel? I wouldn't worry about passengers flying over the Pacific and Atlantic, I don't see any countries risking importing more cases.

In the extreme case, we lock down medical essential workers (janitor and support staff included) and care homes. Then we force people to wear masks outside like during the Spanish Flu in 1918 while still have some kind of distancing protocol in place. People that gather in parks like we saw over the weekend in BC should be fined (take their fancy toys, iPhone, laptops away if they can't pay).

Some work places in downtown Vancouver are not even planning to open until Sept. according to conversation between my manager and his friends in the area.
 

belgolas

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Joined
May 9, 2007
Messages
4,305
Location
St. Thomas, Ontario
Some work places in downtown Vancouver are not even planning to open until Sept. according to conversation between my manager and his friends in the area.
In London Ontario I think all the events are postponed till the fall or next year. I think we won't have any large gatherings this summer.
 

Entz

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Joined
Jul 17, 2011
Messages
1,659
Location
Kelowna
CFL / Hockey is one thing that will be strange for a while. I am assuming no fans...
 

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