Well, they are using computer models, and those seem to be off by a large portion. And much like the weatherman who predicts a 35% chance of rain, their mitigation policies will always be the right ones, because there is no way to show that they are right or if they are wrong. If it rains, the weatherman is right, and if it doesn't rain he is still right.
Canada needs to have another 17,000 people test positive to get to 1% of the population, and in most provinces, other than Quebec and Ontario, the number of cases per day are stabilizing and even falling. If you look backward from yesterday, it took 7 days, give or take 12 hours, to double the number of cases. If we take Quebec and Ontario and give them each their worst day numbers, 907 and 550 respectively, we get another 10,199 cases over the next week. The rest of Canada is pretty calm. And while I don't expect Quebec to have 1000 cases a day for 7 days in a row, I guess it is possible. I don't have a crystal ball.
All I know that in BC we have almost twice as many recovered as we have active cases. Also, the past 7 days average cases is 35 per day. We started to get serious about "flattening the curve" close to the middle of March. Well, the curve has flattened. The hospitals are not overwhelmed. In fact, they cleared out over 3000 beds to be ready for the tsunami of cases and I believe yesterday there were 136 people in the hospital. If BC starts to loosen the rules commercially will all hell break loose? I don't know, but I do know that politicians are risk averse so they will keep up penned up as long as they possibly can, I guess.
The Trudeau government model, the low end, is predicting 2.5% of the population infected. Seems out to lunch looking at the numbers today, and looking back over the past 2 weeks. Not only that, but their estimate of 4,400 deaths from those 93,750 cases is a mortality rate of 4.69%. As of today the mortality rate of known cases is 2.4%. Their estimates seem like they are designed to spook people into compliance.
I'm not an epidemiologist, I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn last night either. I am just a level headed old guy that feels that Canadians are being browbeaten and panicked into compliance based on inflated numbers and a fear of appearing uncaring because folks older than me are dying.
I was thinking of cutting an pasting this to rants, but I don't think it is a rant. I have real numbers that I have been keeping since 24 March. I do this because I have family that is very concerned about this. I am trying to provide some semblance of counter balance to all the media doom and worst case predictions. I have a daughter in Winnipeg that is concerned for her children, Manitoba has 224 cases, .016% of the population. My Mom is 80, I missed going to Winnipeg to celebrate her birthday last week. We though it prudent, given the situation. I don't want her to get sick, but I asked her if she knew anyone who has it, or had it, she didn't. I care that people are dying, but I also care that people sitting at home are getting sick with worry.